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Published November 22, 2023
Fuel prices have been on a steady decline across the United States since the start of November. According to the Energy Information Administration, the national average for a gallon of on-highway diesel has dropped by 24.5 cents since the end of October. This marks a significant overall decrease of 33.6 cents since the last weekly increase noted on October 23.
National Fuel Price Decline
The current national average for on-highway diesel stands at $4.21 a gallon, representing the lowest price since the week ending July 31. Despite these declines in fuel prices, spot rates averages have remained relatively stable. The van rates experienced slight declines, while reefer rates saw gains, particularly in high demand ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
Regional Fuel Price Changes
Breaking down the fuel price changes by region, all areas in the U.S. witnessed decreases over the last week. The Midwest region saw the most significant decline, with prices dropping by 10.1 cents, followed by the Rocky Mountain region, which experienced an 8.8-cent decrease.
California stands out as the only region with average fuel prices surpassing $5 per gallon, reaching an average of $5.64. The West Coast, excluding California, follows with an average of $4.57 per gallon. The Gulf Coast region boasts the cheapest diesel prices, with an average below $4 per gallon at $3.84, closely followed by the Lower Atlantic region at $4.01 per gallon.
ProMiles' Diesel Averages and Fuel Surcharge Index
ProMiles’ diesel averages during the most recent week showed a decline of 6.9 cents to $4.27 per gallon. According to the ProMiles Fuel Surcharge Index, California has the most expensive diesel at $5.82 per gallon, while the Gulf Coast region offers the cheapest at $3.89 per gallon. Despite recent rate gains for reefers nationally, FTR analysts noted considerable spot market uncertainty, with limited activity for the season.
Spot Market Uncertainty and Rates Snapshot
The Truckstop load board system usually sees a rise in total broker-posted spot rates during the week before Thanksgiving. However, this did not occur in the week ending November 17. Spot rates barely changed for refrigerated and flatbed, while dry van rates declined modestly. This departure from the typical rate increases poses a challenge for the trucking industry, suggesting uncertainties in the market.
Demand Metrics and Regional Volume Fluctuations
Demand metrics during this period hit some of their lowest levels since late summer. Volume was approximately 17% below the same week in 2022 and around 26% below the five-year average for the week. Notably, volume was down in the Mountain Central and South Central regions, while other regions experienced increases. Truck postings increased by 4.8%, indicating some resilience in the market.
Truck Postings and Market Demand Index
The Truckstop/FTR Market Demand Index, a ratio of posted loads to posted trucks, provides insights into market dynamics. The increase in truck postings suggests a growing demand for transportation services, yet the overall market remains uncertain. FTR analysts emphasize the need for vigilance due to the lackluster activity during what is traditionally a busy period.
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